US President Barack Obama
never seemed to want a train-and-equip programme for Syrian rebels. Now,
government officials admit that the programme is pretty much over. Here's what
happened behind the scenes at the White House.
After the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad
in 2011, rooting for the rebels was, for many in the West, synonymous with
rooting for democracy and freedom.
In the US, White House officials offered the rebels
humanitarian aid and some military gear. But they argued over whether they
should provide heavy weapons and help in a more serious way.
The philosophical discussion at the White House was
heated and fierce, leading to stalemate, not resolution.
For years Obama and his deputies refused to say
categorically: we're not doing this. Instead a decision was postponed.
Four years later, the result is a splintered Syrian
opposition, the growth of the Islamic State group and a humanitarian disaster
stretching across Europe.
Last year, in a move that was more symbolic than
serious, Obama asked Congress for money to fund a programme allowing US
personnel to teach rebels marksmanship, navigation and other skills.
The goal was to train about 15,000 rebels in Jordan
and other countries so they could return to Syria and fight. However, US
defence officials admitted last month that only four or five of the recruits in
the programme had actually returned to the battle.
Speaking recently at the White House, Obama looked
frustrated as he described "failures" in the US train-and-equip
programme.
On Friday US officials told reporters the programme
was being modified.
"We're going to take a sort of operational
pause," said Christine Wormuth, an undersecretary of defence. Rebel
leaders will now receive basic equipment packages, she explained, but training
for the fighters has been stopped.
The story of this disastrous programme dates back to
the early days of the uprising in the Middle East. Robert Ford, the former US
ambassador to Syria, had a front-row seat to the drama.
In early 2011 he met with Assad. Governments were
being overthrown in Tunisia and Egypt, but things were still quiet in Syria.
They discussed diplomacy in a polite manner. Then Ford asked about human
rights. Assad "hit red real quick," Ford said.
"He raised his voice, and it was very clipped,
short," Ford said, twisting his face and karate-chopping a desk.
After serving as ambassador to Algeria and working as
a diplomat in the Middle East, Ford was the State Department's go-to Syria
expert for years.
He was faced with the challenges of managing the
department's portfolio for Syria, a lovely country with olive groves and
rolling plains that's "not of any particular strategic interest to anybody
who doesn't live there," as Anthony Cordesman, an analyst at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies, said.
Even worse, Ford had taken on a seemingly hopeless
task - arming the opposition in Syria with US weapons.
Because of the uprising, Syria was in the news. But
despite the changes within the country, Syria still wasn't vital to the
strategic interests of the US.For that reason it remained a low priority for
administration officials.
When the Assad regime started to falter in 2012, Ford
believed the US should get involved in the conflict by supporting the rebels.
Otherwise Syria could slide into anarchy and become "another
Somalia/Yemen", he said, using state department code for Failed State.
Virtually everyone in the US, including Obama, wanted
to support the opposition in Syria. But the question was whether the US should
send Stinger missiles and rocket-propelled grenades, or offer moral support and
humanitarian aid and stay out of the conflict.
Ford told administration officials years ago they
should arm the rebels. If the US doesn't help, he said at the time, extremists
will give them money and lure them into their organisations.
Those who supported his approach, the Arms for Rebels
group, included then-CIA Director David Petraeus, then-Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton and most of the foreign-policy establishment in Washington,
both Democrat and Republican.
On the other side of this issue at the time were
Obama, top members of the national security staff and most of America.
For years, according to a CBS News poll, Americans were opposed to the idea of sending
ground troops into Syria to fight the Islamic State (IS) group.
The White House officials were wary of military
involvement in overseas conflicts, and they saw the Arms for Rebels idea as a
step towards a full-scale, decades-long intervention in Syria.
"Originally the argument was, 'We don't know
them very well'," Ford recalled. "When we got to know them better, it
was: 'They don't have very good backgrounds'."
Most of the rebels, he said, weren't
"ideologically pure", not in the way US officials wanted. "In
wars like that, there is no black and white," he said.
Rather than providing weapons, US officials provided
food, medical kits and non-lethal military gear.
Obama's national-security advisors argued that Syria
was at least relatively stable with Assad in power. These advisors, as US
officials who supported the programme told me, were presenting a false choice:
Either Assad stays or Syria will be overrun with terrorists.
In the end, said those who supported the programme,
Syria got the worst of both outcomes.
They believe Obama's advisors should shoulder the
blame for the failure of the programme and also for the failure of the US to help
in Syria.
outside of Aleppo in
August.
With more than 200,000 dead and four million
refugees, the Syria crisis has unfolded over a period of several years while
Ford and his colleagues watched in horror.
"It's not a problem of information," said
Derek Chollet, who worked on Syria issues as assistant defence secretary.
"It's not, 'Boy, if we had just known more.' There was never that."
Ford's career as a diplomat is now over. I spoke with
him at the Middle East Institute in Washington, where he was working in a
borrowed office. The desk was empty except for a black ballpoint pen.
While serving as ambassador to Syria from 2010 to
2014, he became familiar with the opposition in a way few Americans were.
"He knew all these brigades, and he knew their
strengths and weaknesses," New America Foundation's Barak Barfi told me,
speaking on the phone from Syria.
Michael Posner, a former assistant secretary of
state, said Ford made an important contribution to the White House debate about
Syria.
"Usually when things get too complicated, it's:
'Oh, we can't have a point of view'." said Posner. "But he did have a
point of view. He was a very principled, courageous diplomat who did a lot of
good."
People in the Syrian-American community admired
Ford's efforts and looked at Obama in disbelief. "You can't stop barrel
bombs with fruit baskets," said the Syrian American Council's Mohammed
Ghanem.
the Syrian American
Council's Mohammed Ghanem gets homesick, he likes to spend time at a Georgetown
café that reminds him of Damascus. Photo by Colm O'Molloy for BBC News.
People in the intelligence community said the time to
arm the rebels was 2012. The opposition was turning into a military force and
hadn't yet been overrun by al-Qaeda-linked fighters and militants.
Not helping the rebels had consequences, Ford said.
Early support came in the form of
"soon-to-expire MREs", or Meals Ready to Eat, "repurposed from
Afghanistan and Iraq", says one former opposition member.
The White House officials didn't want to provide
weapons in part because they were afraid they'd end up in the wrong hands.
Rebels later admitted some weapons ended up with an al-Qaeda-affiliated group.
The CIA gave some weapons and supplies to the rebels,
though not many.
"Fifteen bullets a month," said Ghanem.
"That was actually mind-blowing."
He recalled meeting a CIA contractor who tasked with
helping the rebels who had quit, saying: "They're asking us to perform
miracles, but they're giving us nothing."
Doing even small things was hard since the process in
Washington was "completely choked", said a retired US Army Lt
General, Michael Flynn, the former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
"It was always a 'mother-may-I'," he said.
"And the 'mother-may-I' would take a long time."
Military officials were trying to explain to
officials at the White House what they needed to help the rebels. The requests
were vetted by people from the White House and federal agencies such as the
state department.
While people were arguing over Syria in Washington,
Ford was in Damascus, telling rebel fighters Americans were on their side.
Things were promised but never arrived, though, making it hard for him to
develop a relationship with them.
Ford fought to arm
the rebels in Syria. Photo by Colm O'Molloy for BBC News
He recalled when two Americans, photographer Matthew
Schrier and journalist Theo Padnos were held by a militant organisation, Nusra
Front, in Aleppo. One morning in July 2013 Schrier escaped through a small
window. Padnos didn't.
Schrier told US officials about the building and its
location. The officials asked one of the opposition leaders to go to the
building and wondered what would happen.
"It's not like he owed me anything," Ford
said. He never found out if the commander actually looked for Padnos.
Left alone in the cell, Padnos was tortured. Thirteen
months later, with the help of Qataris and Americans such as David Bradley,
chairman of Atlantic Media, Padnos was released.
He has a gentle, trusting manner, and during a visit
to Washington he left his unlocked bicycle outside a café and put his mobile on
a table. A crumpled, yellow Post-It with his password was stuck to the phone.
He doesn't sound bitter about Ford, the White House
officials or the Syrian commander, and he said it hardly mattered what the
Americans were doing for the opposition at the time.
"It's like saying if my grandmother had wheels
then she'd be a baby carriage," he said. "If, if, if."
In a broader sense that's true of US support for the
Syrian opposition. No one knows what would have happened if Obama had decided
to arm the rebels in a serious manner after the uprising had started.
He recently told journalists at the White House that
his critics come across as naïve, saying: "'We should have sent more
rifles in early and somehow then everything would have been OK'."
In an interview last
year Obama described the rebels as former doctors, farmers and pharmacists. The
president saw the rebels as brave but unpromising. So did many Syrians.
"It was a failed opposition," said Bassam
Barabandi, who used to work for the Syrian embassy and is co-founder of People
Demand Change, an international development organisation.
"For
me when I watched it," he said. "I knew."
As we sat at on outdoor cafe, a bee landed on his
arm. "Come, friend," he said. "Go away." He lifted his arm
and whistled, and the bee floated near his head and disappeared.
With bees and political leaders, Barabandi tries to
see the world from their perspective. He admired Ford and others like him but
said they were feckless.
"People say we don't understand DC, which is
true," Barabandi said. "But they didn't understand Obama, and we've
paid a price for it."
For years Obama has been trying to shift the nation's
attention away from the Middle East to Asia. He wants to keep America's
military role in the world to a minimum.
"The attitude is very condescending. It's:
'Look, Syria is your issue, and we have a lot on our plate'," said Tyler
Thompson, of the non-profit United for a Free Syria, describing his meetings
with administration officials.
"You never leave the White House with a good
feeling."
Obama is impatient with moral arguments. According to
people who've discussed policy with him, he swats those notions away and asks:
Will it work?
Speaking recently about the train-and-equip
programme, Obama said he'd pressed for details about its viability and heard
"a bunch of mumbo jumbo".
2014 Obama signed a
spending bill authorising funds to train Syrian rebels
"There's the moral imperative and all
that," said one former administration official whose views are closely
aligned with the president.
"I just didn't think this train-and-equip
programme was going to be able to accomplish anything," he said. He also
thought it could pull the US into a long struggle in Syria.
As he talked, I looked at my notebook. I'd written
down things people had told me about why the US should send weapons to the
Syrian opposition. When I brought these points up, he looked at me as if to
say: How can you be so dumb?
The objective of the train-and-equip programme, a
"fool's errand", he described it, was to make people feel better
about themselves while they watch Syria disintegrate.
He said he was unhappy when Obama acquiesced last
year and asked Congress for money to fund the programme. He still couldn't
believe he'd lost the argument since, as he said: "The big boss agreed
with me."
But after IS beheaded US journalists James Foley and
Steven Sotloff, Americans started to re-think what the US military should do.
Within months the majority of Americans supported the
notion of providing support and even sending US troops to Syria to fight the
militant group.
Steven Simon, the former senior director for the Middle
East on the US National Security Council, said: "People had this
conviction, 'Surely there's something we can do.' There was just one thing on
the list that seemed more than just symbolic."
"They put it this way: 'Let's just try it and
see what happens'," he said, describing the train-and-equip programme.
"It was just kind of thrown out there.
"All you could say with certainty was it would
put weapons in the hand of some Syrians."
The train-and-equip programme, which costs $500m
(£326m), was designed to help the opposition fight the Islamic State, not
Assad.
Last month Capt Chris Connolly, a spokesman for the
coalition task force training the rebels, said some may "feel the training
may take too long." Still he said morale among trainers and recruits was high.
It's possible to sympathise with people on all sides
of the debate at the White House - those who wanted to help the rebels, those
who didn't, those in between - and still say Obama made the wrong choice.
At the institute Ford sat in a chair for photographs.
He'd taken off his glasses. The lights were bright, and the room was hot. He
talked about Syria and the disastrous results of inaction.
"What they saw is a messy civil war, and their
basic thrust is, 'We can't steer this'," he said. "But if you don't
the situation might actually get worse, and it might bite you in the
butt."
He said he didn't want more pictures - then agreed to
stay for a moment.
He looked angry and defeated, a man caught in
circumstances beyond his control. By Tara McKelvey BBC News,
Washington BBC 10.10.2015